Introduction
As the founder of Prospect Change, I spend my time inside organisations trying to deliver change under intense pressure. Across sectors, I am seeing the same pattern – the volume and complexity of change is rising, but the capability to absorb it, govern it and deliver it safely is being reduced. That gap is now a material risk to performance, compliance and growth.
The UK is facing simultaneous waves of AI adoption, environmental and net zero obligations, regulatory pressure, workforce change and economic instability. These are not optional changes. They are structural shifts that affect how organisations operate, compete, comply and survive. And all of these changes bring with them regulatory requirements.
Yet at the very moment when strong change capability is most needed, many organisations are rationing or dismantling what they have. We are asking organisations to change faster, more safely and more strategically than ever before, all while they quietly and unknowingly remove the very capability that makes this possible.
I’m using this as an opportunity to share with you the worrying trends that I strongly believe are significantly impeding organisational growth currently and, if not resolved, will result in detrimental issues across the economic landscape within the next 5 years.
What’s Happening and Why?
I first started my career in change in 2012, and at this point, highly regulated sectors such as financial services were investing heavily in Change and PMO capability. The original driver was governance, auditability and traceability, which they achieved, because PMO does provide exceptional traceability and foresight. These organisations were able to demonstrate that:
- Investment was being directed in the right places
- Returns were being tracked
- Customer impacting change was controlled
- Risks were being actively managed
- Teams were doing everything possible to prevent negative outcomes, both on investment and customers
Other sectors followed and PMO capability became more common with many organisations started to realise the operational value of structured delivery and assurance and the strategic potential of PMO. However, educational standards within this space did not catch up and therefore, whilst strategic potential through a PMO could be understood in theory, it rarely translated into reality. Organisational PMO capability was only ever going to be as good as those establishing it; and with limited baselining of “what good looks like”, these standards varied. As a result, across the board there was a common but critical element missed – the Strategic Golden Thread. PMOs became strong at administration, assurance and audit, but too rarely owned the responsibility for driving growth through strategic investment decisions.
PMOs became focused on process compliance and reporting, without owning the portfolio level responsibility of connecting vision to delivery and managing change as investment that must result in a return. Bringing together the Project Portfolio of change in a way that articulates an accurate story of how these changes will maintain operational baseline whilst also driving forward intentional growth.
For a long period of time, this weakness did not hurt organisations as much as it should have. Pre Brexit and pre Covid, the economic climate was more forgiving. Growth was more available and even without strong strategic portfolio alignment, many organisations still performed well.
To use an analogy, the environment was warm. It is like summer, you can leave the house in a short sleeved t-shirt and still be comfortable. Assuming the outcome is staying warm, this happens without much effort. However, now we are in autumn moving into winter, the economic, political, global landscape is volatile, regulation is much heavier (and constantly changing!) and growth is much harder to achieve. In addition, AI is changing how work is done, environmental requirements are shifting operating models and cost pressures are rising everywhere. The environment has changed, and it is now far less forgiving.
You cannot bring the sun back but you can change how you prepare for the cold. You put on a coat, maybe a hat, gloves and extra layers. The outcome is the same, you stay warm. However, the effort and preparation required to achieve that outcome is now higher.
Organisations today are trying to achieve the same outcomes as before. Sustainable operations, growth, customer trust and resilience. But the conditions have changed, the layers now required are stronger change capability, stronger strategic alignment, better prioritisation and more disciplined delivery assurance.
However, the worrying trend we are seeing at Prospect Change is that organisations are doing the opposite. Under pressure from rising costs, wage increases and budget cuts, many organisations are reducing change capability rather than maturing it. We are seeing:
- Project managers being reduced and delivery is pushed onto subject matter experts as a side of desk role
- PMOs being reduced or removed entirely because they are seen as administrative
- Change management labelled as fluffy and non-essential
This is the equivalent of stepping outside in winter wearing summer clothes and wondering why you are cold. Organisations are stagnating. If there was ever a time to be concerned about stagnation, it is now. The external environment is unforgiving and organisations without strong and intentional change capability at the helm are sailing into choppy seas without the skills to dodge or safely ride the waves.
Layer on top of this the scale of change hitting the UK, legislative and regulatory change that continues to grow in volume and complexity, AI strategies that are being heavily promoted at national level and environmental and net zero requirements that demand operational and supply chain change
These are not small changes, and the reality is that many organisations are not ready to absorb this scale of change at the pace it is arriving.
What’s Next?
But of course, this would not be a Prospect Change blog if we didn’t focus on how we can set things right again. But we have to start with realism; simply saying, “bring back the change team” is not practical when budgets are tight, you’d struggle to get buy in, let alone find the budget right now! The solution starts with honest assessment and proportionate design.
First step is to make incremental changes that will allow you to answer “agree” to the questions below, because this will set you on the path to ensure your current change is intentionally linked to the outcomes you need.
- We know which projects will maintain operational baseline and can measure success through their alignment to KPIs (or equivalent)
- We know which projects will maintain strategic growth and can measure success through strategic objectives (or equivalent)
- All projects have clearly defined boundaries relating to cost, scope, timeline, benefits and risk which are defined at ideation and tracked closely through to delivery and benefit realisation.
- Senior leaders are aligned in the prioritisation and governance of all projects.
You do not need a perfect model to start. You just need to be able to answer “agree” to these questions in a way that is honest, not hopeful. And to achieve this, it is the acceptance of principles over process that truly matter. I share here a set of suggested principles that, if agreed on and embedded, will drive the right outcomes:
1. Direction Before Delivery
We do not start change until the destination is clear. Every initiative must be explicitly linked to either maintaining operational standards or delivering strategic growth, with a clear statement of what “good” looks like at the end.
2. Measure What Matters
We only invest in change that can be measured. Operational change must be linked to defined operational measures such as KPIs. Strategic change must be linked to strategic objectives and long term outcomes. If success cannot be measured, the change is not ready to proceed.
3. One Portfolio, Two Lenses
All change sits within a single portfolio, viewed through two lenses, operational sustainability and strategic growth. Decisions are made with full visibility of how each initiative contributes to either maintaining the baseline or moving the organisation forward.
4. Boundaries Before Build
We define the boundaries of every project before delivery begins. Cost, scope, timeline, benefits and risk must be agreed at ideation, owned by accountable leaders and actively controlled through to benefit realisation. We do not reward speed that creates ambiguity or hidden risk.
5. Benefits Are Owned, Not Assumed
Every project has named benefit owners who are accountable for realising outcomes, not just delivering outputs. Success is defined by the change achieved in the organisation, not by whether the project completed its tasks.
6. Leaders Act as One System
Senior leaders prioritise and govern change collectively, not within functional silos. Trade offs are made openly at portfolio level, with shared accountability for outcomes across the organisation.
7. Proportionate Governance, Not Process for Process Sake
We apply only the level of governance needed to manage risk and value. High risk or high value change receives deeper assurance. Lower risk change is managed more lightly, without bypassing the fundamentals of clarity, ownership and measurement.
8. Value Before Activity
We prioritise initiatives based on the value they will deliver, not the noise around them or who shouts loudest. Capacity is protected for the most strategically important work, even when operational pressure is high.
9. Change Capability Is Part of the Investment, Not an Overhead
The cost of delivery assurance, PMO and change management is built into project investment. Change capability exists to protect value, reduce failure, and accelerate benefit realisation. It is treated as part of how outcomes are achieved, not as optional support.
10. Learn Fast, Adapt Faster
We treat delivery as a learning system. Performance, risks and outcomes are reviewed regularly, and plans are adjusted early. Sticking rigidly to a failing plan is not considered good governance.
Accepting these principles across the board and making decisions based on these will naturally take you to a place where you can respond “agree” to the statements. From there, you can build proportionate change capability into your projects; further enhancing your PMO Function to become true custodians of organisational sustainability and growth through Change.
If you haven’t yet found yourself in a position of cutting or reducing change capability but know this is a risk, instead of funding PMO and change capability centrally, build the cost of delivering change well directly into the investment case for each project. Start by quantifying the PMO function in straightforward financial terms, for example the day rates or salary cost of the people involved, the proportion of time required at different stages and any essential tools or reporting overhead. Then allocate that cost proportionately across the project portfolio based on size, risk, complexity and delivery duration, so larger and higher risk initiatives fund more assurance, and smaller initiatives fund only what they genuinely need.
This approach makes the true cost of delivery transparent, it stops PMO being seen as an undefined “admin” line and it ensures that when projects are approved, they are approved with the capability required to govern them properly.
When you do this, the value of change capability also becomes visible:
- Project costs include the real work of planning, controlling scope, managing dependencies, tracking benefits, maintaining governance and driving decisions at the right pace.
- Leaders can see what it costs to deliver change with control and they can compare that cost to the alternative, which is rework, delays, unmanaged risk, poor adoption and benefits that never fully land.
Over time, this model creates a healthier cycle, with the portfolio funding the capability needed to deliver it, the capability protecting benefits and reducing failure, and the organisation clearly justifying investment because it can evidence outcomes.
Done properly, change capability begins to pay for itself through avoided failure, reduced waste, faster delivery and benefits that are actually realised, not just predicted in a business case.
Summary and Closing
This blog is not about teaching you how to build a perfect PMO or change function. It is about calling out a pattern that is becoming dangerous. At the exact moment when organisations need stronger change capability to survive and grow, many are stripping it away.
AI adoption, environmental demands, regulatory pressure and economic uncertainty are not slowing down, they are accelerating. Organisations that cannot connect vision to strategy, strategy to change and change to delivery will struggle to respond with intent, resilience and control.
You cannot control the weather but you can control how prepared you are for it.
If your organisation wants to survive this next phase of change, the answer is not to remove the layers that keep you warm. The answer is to design your change capability so that it is proportionate, value driven and directly connected to the outcomes your organisation depends on.
If you want practical guidance on how to assess your current capability and design a change approach that fits your reality, we can help you quickly establish what is working, what is missing and what proportionate change capability looks like for your organisation right now.
